While the action of the markets and the news over the last few days seems somewhat frightening, here is our take for your consideration.
The markets were at a peak on Feb 19th and had shaken off the news of the Coronavirus. Most of damage is abroad as the outbreak will cause a temporary dislocation in the economic systems of many countries. At this time, China is just starting to move forward, and the US seems to be well insulated, as we have not had any deaths yet. GGA believes this current will be temporary, but it will impact global GDP. At this time, the US economy is in good shape but US companies receiving earnings from the affected areas will have a short-term earnings hiccup. Markets are generally good predictors of the future. At some point when markets calm down, we will re-enter a growth phase, and whether that recovery is V shaped or U shaped, economic activity will resume.
After today’s action, the S&P will be down a few percentage points for the year, so it isn’t time to panic. You can be prudent and take opportunity where it lies, and that means an entry point into the market at much lower prices than last week. This will take some time to work out, but to put this into perspective: the 4th quarter of 2018 was much worse in terms of market action than what we are seeing at this moment. Please feel free to call and discuss if you are concerned in any way!!!