We’ve been saying for several months that bonds would not be the best place to be, for making any decent return in the cycle. The ten year treasury yield has gone from a low of 1.6% to almost 2.50%. That is over a 50% back up in yields this year. While most firms are calling for much higher rates by year end, we are not as optimistic on higher yields. Unless the economy picks up in the second half, we do not see a reason for the Ten Year treasury yield to go too much higher from here. We are not calling a top on the 10yr yield, but we believe the biggest percentage move is behind us. At this point, if you are a bond buyer, you might consider dipping your toe in slowly, until a clearer path evolves.
