The stock market is up big again today, so it is hard to imagine any kind of pullback. What one should look at is valuations, and recognize where the stock market trades in terms of P/E. The US market is slightly over-valued and trading at almost 16 times 2014 earnings. This is above the average P/E of market history, and may be stretched too far when considering corporate growth. Small Cap stocks, according to JPM, are trading at 40% above their 200 day moving average, and we could have a crack there as well. Other bearish traits, corporate insiders, are selling stock 6 times faster than insider buying which is double the average since 1990. All of this information is a guide for caution in the upcoming months, as markets can continue to get stretched, before they come back to averages.
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